Napoleon Bonaparte once remarked, “Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world.” Though this prediction came at the turn of the 19th century, China’s current state could not be more aptly described by someone actually witnessing the country’s revitalization today. This ancient nation began its renaissance over thirty years ago, and has since served as a constant reminder of the possible emergence of a new world superpower.
The prospect of China’s ascent to a status equal to that of the United States or another predominant country is daunting. It has indeed experienced economic growth unmatched by any nation’s history, but other features of this country remain untouched. While China’s economy grows to surpass that of developed nations such as Germany and Great Britain, its political and social climates have remained mired in the past. Is it possible for this nation to propel itself into the new millennium as the prevailing superpower, or will internal instabilities cause a descent into chaos?

China’s Economic Reform

China’s identity as a model of modernity stems from its bainan guochi, or “100 years of national humiliation,” at the hands of foreigners. Spanning from the mid-1800s until 1949, China experienced defeat during the Opium Wars, disgraceful treatment of its immigrants in America and Japanese invasion during World War II, and embarrassment that Japan succeeded in becoming the first modernized Asian power.
This feeling of subordination at the hands of Western powers began to dissipate in the mid-1900s when communist revolutionaries, under the leadership of Mao Zedong, prevailed in the Chinese Civil War. Mao was present at the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 1921. After this meeting he formed branches in the Hunan province and endeavored to organize peasants, who would later become the foundation of his revolution. Mao’s rise to power was not uncontested, as the leader of the Kuomintang (KMT) party, Chiang Kai-shek, sought to rid China of Communism. The KMT was officially overthrown after Japan’s surrender in World War II, when civil war broke out between the two battling parties. Mao’s Red Army, comprised mostly of peasants, deployed guerilla tactics to defeat Chiang while Mao solidified his power within the Communist Party. On October 1, 1949, Mao famously declared the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) at Tiananmen Square.
With Mao Zedong as its leader, the Communist Party formed a unified front and began rejecting other countries’ imperialistic ambitions in China. Most recently, we have seen its acquisition of Hong Kong, now one of the world’s foremost economies, and the awarding of the 2008 Summer Olympics to Beijing. Clearly, China has become an international player again. Although Chairman Mao died in 1976, he effectively set the stage for reform in China because he founded the PRC with conviction in revolution; when Mao accepted his position of leader of the PRC, he did not say that the Communists had won. Rather, he claimed, “The Chinese people have stood up.” The Chinese were ready to leave a century of humiliation behind and enter a time of change and repossession of national identity.
When Deng Xiaoping replaced Mao as leader of the Communist Party, he immediately focused on reorganizing China into a socialist market economy. His reforms centered on bureaucrats managing the macro-economy and an increase in agricultural output. Local incentives, such as extra income from selling goods in a free market, were used to motivate the massive labor force. Deng also shifted the focus from an industry-led economy to an export-led one. With such a low capital base, this change was key for the developing country.

Deng’s reforms, which shifted towards modernization through foreign exchange versus self-reliance, brought exponential economic growth. In 2002, the economy was more than eight times its size in 1978. In the last 30 years, its GDP has grown at an average annual rate of nearly ten percent and its per capita GDP at eight percent. It is also a crucial engine of the global market as a major importer of commodities and exporter of manufactured goods, as well as a major financier of US debt.  The further integration of China into the world system promises to bring stability and prosperity to producers and consumers around the world.  By contrast, should China succumb to its many challenges, the consequences for the rest of the world could be severe.

Problems China Faces

China’s growth has been astonishing. But how long will it be before this bubble bursts? On one side, China faces exponential economic growth. On the other, excessively slow political reform. Is it possible for the economy to continue at this pace without the support of a revitalized political system?
China’s ambition to gain equal status with developed countries is not a pretty process. Until recently, economic success has concealed the nation’s frailties in other areas. As China becomes more open to the public eye, it has become apparent that its unstable foundation lies in a bed of corruption, from which stems a multitude of other problems.
Corruption is nearly an institutionalized practice in this defensive and nationalistic country that resists democratization. Chinese leaders’ greatest concern is their own political survival. To ensure that no political surprises occur, the government has tightened restrictions on non-governmental organizations such as religious groups and the media, and has arrested many purported dissidents. Within the press, bribery exists as one of the major examples of corruption. The Chinese saying you chang xin wen translates to “news with a bonus,” and largely defines this industry. It is commonplace for a Chinese journalist to find cash in a request for covering a press release. Oddly, this corruption applies to both ends of the spectrum as journalists often refuse to write an article on a company unless paid in advance. China’s Propaganda Department also forbids politically sensitive topics such as the 1989 Tiananmen riots, human rights, individual leaders, the Communist Party, political reform, and Tibet from journalistic writings in effort to control any subversive, anti-Party material. By managing what the media reports to Chinese citizens, the government influences public opinion in its favor.
Corruption, dubbed “conflicts of interest” by the Chinese, can also be found within the legal system. In the United States, citizens have access to local and state courts that are legally bound to remain unbiased and independent. In China, this is not the case. Local court officials and judges are appointed by the national government, which thus only promotes a façade of impartiality as no ruling will ever oppose the interests of the Party.
For a country so determined to maintain its economic expansion, China needs to consider what the costs of corruption are each year. In the beginning of the reform era, it is likely that twisting rules and turning a blind eye to monetary fraud actually helped bolster economic growth. However, this misuse of authority has since become a national liability as it destabilizes the Party and thus the country from within. It has been reported that corruption in China comprises three to five percent of the gross domestic product each year. In a surprisingly revealing statement at the end of his term, former Communist Party boss Jian Zemin even acknowledged that corruption had become so debilitating that it jeopardized “the very existence of the Party and the state.”
Those in China and foreign nations alike now wonder, if official corruption could topple the regime, why does the Party refuse to instate political reform? If the gap between lagging political growth and soaring economic growth does not close, the ramifications of China’s fall will be felt throughout the world.  Such discrepancy between political and economic growth was shown in a 2002 survey which reported that Chinese people believe their rights and ability to influence government decisions and demand equal treatment has only marginally improved since before the Deng reform area.
There is no one explanation as to why China refuses to accommodate its nearly 1.4 billion citizens with a reformed political system. Some analysts have reported that with the booming economic success, China believes it can bankroll its governmental inadequacies. The more common opinion holds that the Party is too fearful of losing executive power, which could occur from political liberalization resulting in revolution. Or, it is possible that this exceedingly complex government has allowed corruption for too long and it would be impossible to organize local officials and business owners into a new political system. After cradling these enforcers of corrupt CCP policy with social and economic incentives for so long, the government would have tremendous difficulties enforcing universal rules upon them while still expecting loyal service in return.
Unless democratization, or at the very least a purge of the corrupt facets of the government occurs, complete modernization will be nearly impossible. Currently, several international indexes have rated China as: one of the most authoritarian political systems, almost completely “unfree,” and one of the most corrupt countries in the world. China’s governing system lacks the checks and balances that regulate democracies.  The CCP controls every aspect of Chinese politics, and refuses any external supervision since it recognizes no authority as its superior. Because of this blindness, the political system resides above the law and thus the Chinese citizens ultimately pay, as their voices remain unheard.
With the elite controlling all aspects of Chinese society, structural imbalances have accumulated within social classes. Exclusivity by the elite breeds tensions that, if brought to a boiling point, may destabilize the government. Data already reports an increase in collective protests and various forms of defiance against the government. The disparity between the upper and lower classes in China largely overlaps the division between urban and rural populations. In the wake of China’s economic explosion, millions have flocked to Chinese cities in hopes of attaining the promise of a lucrative, urban future.  As of 2004, average urban incomes were more than three times larger than average rural incomes.  Accordingly, cities are expanding by dozens of square miles and hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people each year.  To put it in perspective, in the year of Mao’s revolution, only five cities in China had a population of more than one million. By 2000, that number had reached 40.

This massive urbanization has not reached all parts of China.  The 30 percent of Chinese that remain in the countryside earn little more than a subsistence income; many work for less than two dollars a day. However, this lack of complete urbanization has been crucial to China’s economic growth, as it provides a workforce that is willing to work at preindustrial wages while living in modern times. Referred to as a compression of developmental time, this characterizes the inequalities in employment and thus opportunities for the Chinese people.
The Chinese government further disadvantaged those who live in rural settings by establishing the one-child policy in 1979, which aims to slow the staggering population growth. The government did not take into consideration China’s population which relies on large families to work farms or for support in retirement. Social security and pensions have the tendency to “disappear” in China (yet more proof of rampant corruption), which creates an incentive for parents to have multiple children who can provide for them in their old age. The Party enforces the one-child policy by financial punishment and social stigmatization, thus further alienating its rural population. Families with who defy this law receive huge fines, pay higher taxes, and forfeit their right to free education for their children. Refusal to abide by this policy often leads to being ostracized by an embarrassed family or even entire community. As a result, rural families are caught between a law which permits only one child, and social forces that encourage them to have multiple children.
Urban residents may not feel the negative effects of this policy as painfully as rural Chinese, but like most poor decisions, consequences will take effect in the future. Currently over 70 percent of the population is of “working-age,” meaning it can support both dependent children and elderly parents. However, by 2065, more than 54 percent of the population will be over 60 and only 22 percent will be working. This massive demographic shift will place an unbearable burden on healthcare and pension systems. China may collapse under the weight of its aging population if its stagnant government does not develop policies to accommodate for this change. The Communist Party hopes that enough wealth is created within the next twenty years to avert the crisis, but if this aspiration falls short, China’s self-implosion is very possible.
The Chinese government has also failed to prepare for the environmental repercussions that have directly resulted from its rapid industrialization. At the onset of this modernization, China treated environmental protection as a luxury it could not afford. Consequently, of the 20 most polluted cities in the world, 16 are in China. Environmental officials report that acid rain falls on over a third of the country, a quarter of residents lack access to clean drinking water, and one third of the population is breathing polluted air. The government may have passed regulatory laws, but it also appoints local officials that do not enforce them. Like the abovementioned social divisions, these environmental disgraces have the potential to cause political upheaval. At the very least, the related health effects will slow China’s economic progress.
With all eyes on China during the Olympics, this country also recently came under fire for its violation of human rights in Tibet. What has come to be known as “the Tibetan question,” is rather difficult to answer. China claims to have owned Tibet as one of its territories since as far back as the 7th century, when contact and civilized relations existed between the two entities and Chinese officials were stationed in the Tibetan capital. However, the Tibetans, and subsequently most of the West, believe that China has only occupied Tibet since the Communist invasion in 1950.
In 1951, the sixteen year-old Dalai Lama, under duress, signed the “Seventeen Point Agreement for the Peaceful Liberation of Tibet,” which effectively affirmed China’s sovereignty over Tibet. Once China assumed control over Tibet and the Han Chinese moved into the territory, it committed a cultural genocide of sorts by enforcing different societal standards, such as the repression of Tibetan language and religion, which undermined the foundation of Tibetan society. Monks and Tibetan citizens alike were killed by the thousands for refusing to assimilate into this forced Chinese draconian rule. Within 30 years of its invasion, China is reported to have killed over one million Tibetans; in the failed uprising of March 1959 alone, nearly 15,000 Tibetans were killed. After this uprising, the Dalai Lama was forced to flee to India and lead the resistance from a safe distance.
As China fought to win the 2008 Summer Olympics for Beijing, its treatment of Tibet was harshly scrutinized. Tibetan protests flared in the months preceding the games which attracted international attention. Though China maintains both that Tibet has experienced exponential social and economic growth since the invasion and that this situation is an internal issue, it agreed to hold peace talks with the still-exiled Dalai Lama to discuss its handling of human rights. In dealing with the riots, China also showed remarkable restraint; violence was kept relatively minimal in comparison to the past 50 years, but perhaps only because of the constant surveillance on China as the Games drew closer.
Tibet is not the only region where China has tried to enforce cultural homogeneity. Its neighbor to the north, the Xinjiang region, has also been victimized by China’s violations of human rights. Nearly half of this region is comprised of Muslim Uighurs, an ethnically Turkic people who practice Islam. While China claims that it does not suppress those who practice this religion, its actions prove contradictory to this assertion.
Every year, thousands of people are either detained or executed for supposed religious extremism. Mosques are forced to close and imams, the Islamic leaders, are watched under close scrutiny. Xinjiang made a bid for independency in the 1940s, but was annexed by China when Mao’s army entered in 1949. Since the annexation, Xinjiang has been home to violent unrest as its people fear losing their traditional culture to that imposed by the Han Chinese. China maintains it is in Xinjiang to stop separatist or terrorist activities, while the Uighurs and human rights groups view its presence as a violation of personal freedoms.

What will happen if we lose China?

If China cannot reach a peaceful conclusion with Tibet and Xinjiang or the aforementioned problems converge within the next twenty to forty years, as projected by various timelines, what will happen to this nation? Will China completely implode as it derails from its track towards modernity, or will it slowly fall from its ascent to global dominance and return to a pre-reform era?
Regardless of the course of China’s possible failure, its global effects would be innumerable. China is the world’s foremost exporting economy and removal of its participation in foreign economies could cause a worldwide depression. Self-implosion could bring about civil war and regional conflict that would bring misery to millions of people and severely strain the international political and economic order. If China’s lack of environmental protection policies leads to a catastrophe such as its 2005 chemical disaster or the Soviet Union’s Chernobyl, ramifications will be felt on a global scale.
Thus the question is posed: does it remain important to support a country so integral in the international community although it is built upon a bed of corruption and dehumanizing policies?
In regard to China’s occupation of Tibet, it is necessary to look into our own past before we completely disregard this country as a violator of human rights not worthy of international acceptance. Within only the last few centuries, equivalent to only a fleeting moment in China’s long history, America has witnessed the slaughter of millions of Native Americans and an appalling slave trade. Slavery may have been abolished in 1865, but it wasn’t until nearly a century later that legislation outlawed racial discrimination. Advocacy of fair treatment for all is important, but America cannot remain blind to the fact that its history is also ridden with violations of basic human rights.
America must also realize that China is modernizing at an unprecedented speed. Unlike modern, industrialized countries that benefit from stable governments, China is still in the process of building its internal infrastructure. Corruption is certainly not acceptable as a foundation for any country, but it is to be expected in these early stages. After China creates a structurally sound government that can provide for and control its enormous population, it can then realistically be held to international standards and accountable for its actions.

Conclusion

China’s frenetic drive for economic dominance and superpower status is at risk because of its internal corruption and social instability. The public has wrongly assumed that this nation will undoubtedly become the next world power; however, it is still possible for China to become not only the leading country of Asia, but also a harbinger of the progress to come in the 21st century. If China remedies its internal crises, the world as we know it will change. For now, we must wait as this delicate dragon fully awakes.

Jennifer Hirsch can be reached at jhh13@pitt.edu